The US Defense Department’s latest annual industrial base assessment includes rosy predictions for developers of high-tech unmanned aircraft that have become essential elements of U.S. military operations.
Although declines in manned tactical aircraft may be expected, development of unmanned aircraft systems is “a key area of growth,” states the August report prepared by the office of Brett Lambert, the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Manufacturing and Industrial Base policy.
“DOD unmanned aerial system sector looks promising with robust growth rate,” the report adds. “Moreover, increasing demand for DOD unmanned aerial systems could be viewed as a trade-off for lower cost fixed wing capabilities.”
Unmanned aircraft continue to evolve, as technology matures, operational lessons-learned are reviewed and officials develop long-term strategies for using UAS “beyond current conflicts,” the report states.
“As evidenced by their extensive use in operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, UAS have proven themselves an effective tool for the warfighter,” the report states. “The capabilities they bring — from providing constant imagery to serving as strike platforms — are now virtually indispensable to combatant commanders and have resulted in demand exceeding the supply.”
The assessment notes the UAS industrial base is large, robust and continues to expand driven by the ever-increasing demand for drones. The industry includes not only traditional fixed-wing and vertical-lift prime contractors, but also companies such as General Atomics, Aerovironment, Textron (which acquired AAI Corp.), Raytheon (which acquired Swift’s UAS business via Northrop Grumman), IAI and Elbit Systems, the report notes.
“Greater computing power, combined with developments in miniaturisation, sensors and artificial intelligence, will dramatically boost UAS capabilities, their ability to operate with each other and how they interact with humans,” the report states. “This evolution in UAS has the potential to provide alternative solutions to meeting operational requirements in the future.”
The Navy is eying potential investments in revolutionary unmanned systems with greater autonomy than today’s UAS to counter advanced Chinese weapons capable of threatening U.S. warships. And a recent Defense Science Board study underscored the need to make better use of autonomy technology.
A 2011 review of the robotics and autonomous systems industry by National Defense University’s Industrial College of the Armed Forces states the UAS market is the most mature and well defined of military robotic market segments and the American UAS industry is the most dominant in the world, capturing almost a 70 percent share of the global market. Although performance varies across markets and domains, current DOD spending on unmanned aircraft is tenfold higher than in fiscal year 2002, the NDU report states, noting spending has increased from $500 million to roughly $5 billion.
Unlike the marine or ground environments, the air domain offers greater accessibility and freedom of movement due to excellent communications capabilities, the report adds, noting this enables more nuanced and varied forces to shape this market. The NDU report notes the small UAS market segment is fractured because there is much competition and the barriers to entry are low. The medium UAS market segment is “well structured and stable” with a few suppliers influencing the market, although the U.S. government remains the primary buyer with the most purchasing power. “The large UASmarket segment is similarly structured and very much resembles the major aircraft weapons systems market for complex and expensive products,” NDU notes.
In the short term, small UAS firms may face challenges as the supply of such systems exceeds the demand, but the medium and larger UAS market segments should continue to perform well based on proven capabilities and secure program-of-record funding streams, the NDU report predicts. In the long-term, research and development spending for unmanned aircraft will continue but the funding level is uncertain due to bipartisan pressure to cut spending, the report notes. The NDU assessment predicts consolidation within market segments, through mergers or bankruptcy, that will likely improve interoperability “as the market settles on a few winning firms and products.” The market is likely to move toward commoditization — for instance, sensors, manipulators and control mechanisms — and modularity, the report adds, noting standards will shift away from closed and proprietary architectures.
Source: Inside Defense