Gartner Forecasts 3M US Drone Shipments in 2017

Globally, the market for drones is projected to grow to almost three million units and more than $6 billion in revenue this year, according to a February forecast from Gartner. That represents 39 percent unit growth and 34 percent revenue growth over 2016.

Production of drones for personal and commercial use is growing rapidly, with global market revenue expected to increase 34 percent to reach more than $6 billion in 2017 and grow to more than $11.2 billion by 2020, according to a new forecast from Gartner, Inc (see Table 1). Almost three million drones will be produced in 2017, 39 percent more than in 2016 (see Table below).

While the civil markets (personal and commercial) have been wading through regulation by various governments, drones’ popularity in these markets has not diminished. The overall drone market will see substantial growth, but the dynamics of the personal and commercial submarkets are very different, Gartner analysts said.

Personal drones will continue to increase in popularity as an affordable extension of consumers’ smartphones for taking photographs and selfies and for other entertainment options. They can fly a short distance and time, typically no more than 5,000 meters and for one hour, with flight height constrained to within 500 meters. They weigh less than 2 kilograms and are priced less than $5,000.

The market for commercial drones is much smaller, with a significantly higher average selling price in comparison with personal drones. With more countries solidifying their drone regulations, the market is beginning to stabilize, and companies are now buying drones to test and deploy in nearly every industry. Commercial drones normally have a higher payload, longer flight times, and redundant sensors and flight controllers to make them safer. They are more specialized to a function, such as mapping, delivery or industrial inspection, so prices vary according to these requirements.

“The commercial and personal drone markets are increasingly overlapping, as lower-priced personal devices are being used for commercial ventures,” said Gerald Van Hoy, senior research analyst at Gartner. “Personal drone vendors are now aggressively trying to position themselves in the commercial market. Recent technological advances blur the lines, allowing personal drones to be used in many special-purpose applications such as surveillance, 3D mapping and modeling.”

Table 1. Personal and Commercial Drones Revenue Forecast, 2016-17 (Thousands of U.S. Dollars)

Source: Gartner (February 2017)

In commercial markets, new case studies are released regularly, showing savings in both costs and time, as well as highlighting increased accuracy and quality.

Agriculture was considered to be the first big commercial drone market, but pricing and economic dynamics around tighter yields and returns on investment mean that the commercial agricultural drone market is not growing at the pace of other commercial drone markets. Gartner predicts that through 2020, the high cost sensitivity of the agriculture market will limit drone adoption to 7 percent of commercial market growth.

Industrial inspections have been much more successful, primarily in oil and gas, energy, infrastructure and transportation. Regulations do not have as much of an impact on the market as was originally thought. Most inspections are close (within three meters) and low since they are examining equipment that is near or on the ground. Gartner expects the inspection segment to dominate with 30 percent of the commercial drone market through 2020.

Delivery drones continue to capture the attention of the news media but will not be a major factor for several years. The return on investment has not been proven either in regard to the cost of the drone, operational costs and a single customer delivery.

“Delivery drones will be mired in logistical issues like the time needed to return a drone to its origin point after delivery, and will amount to less than 1 percent of the commercial market by 2020,” said Mr. Van Hoy. “We expect that delivery drones will begin finding a niche in business-to-business applications first, particularly for internal services within one company where logistics will not be such a big factor.”

While personal drones dominate unit sales — 94 percent of the market — they only represent about 40 percent of the market’s revenue share. The much-smaller number of commercial drones — about 6 percent of the market, with price tags up to and beyond $100,000 — is projected to represent 60 percent of its revenue. (That’s where companies like Aeryon Labs and Insitu, a subsidiary of Boeing, are competing.)

By 2020, Gartner predicts the drone market will almost double again to surpass $11 billion.

The FAA, meanwhile, expects the total U.S. fleet of hobbyist drones to more than triple to about 3.4 million by 2020, up from 1.1 million last year, with the most rapid growth over the next two years. And it expects the smaller fleet of commercial drones to grow by 10 times over that span.