The Center for a New American Security (CNAS) Drone Proliferation Dataset tracks global transfers of military-grade aerial drones, regardless of size and capability, between 1995 and September 1, 2023. It was created as part of a larger research project by the CNAS Defense Program that examined trends in drone proliferation and drone use in recent conflicts, as well as their likely effect on a potential future conflict over Taiwan.
This research culminated in the June 2024 report, Swarms Over the Strait: Drone Warfare in a Future Fight to Defend Taiwan, by Stacie Pettyjohn, Hannah Dennis, and Molly Campbell. The authors drew on this dataset in their analysis of the role drone diplomacy plays in the strategic competition between the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
Summary of Findings
Over the last 30 years, there has been a steady diffusion of drone technology, with an increasing number of states and nonstate actors acquiring uncrewed systems. The days of Israeli and American domination of the drone market are long gone. China, Turkey, and Iran have developed low-cost military drones and are willing to sell them to interested buyers.
The United States’ self-imposed adherence to the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) has given rise to competition from China and Turkey, limiting Washington’s ability to shape drone proliferation and employ drone diplomacy, narrowing one avenue of U.S. influence.
click to enlarge
Consequently, the last decade has witnessed a tremendous surge in military drone sales. In 2022, six new countries acquired military drones, all of which were armed Bayraktar TB2 drones from Turkey. Chinese drone sales peaked in 2014, and by 2021, Turkey had overtaken China as the globe’s largest supplier. The good press from the battlefields of Libya, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Ukraine, along with Turkey’s short timelines for delivery, has propelled Turkey to the top of the military drone market.
While larger, more expensive, reusable military-grade drones dominated the early drone market, the sale of loitering munitions (kamikaze drones) has accelerated and will likely continue to grow.
Available for download is the CNAS Drone Proliferation Dataset and a codebook, which provides an in-depth explanation of the methods used to identify, organize, and code the data so that others may analyze and expand on it.
Researchers can download the complete dataset and codebook here.