Surge in Iranian Cargo Flights to Moscow

The number of Iranian cargo flights to Russia has surged since the war in Ukraine began, an analysis of open-source flight data shows.

Since April, at least 42 flights by Iranian carriers linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have landed in Moscow, compared to just three in 2021.

It’s impossible to determine from the flight data what cargo the planes were carrying or whether Iran has already begun supplying the drones.

Last week, an aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Iran had already provided Russia with 46 drones and that the Russian army had begun using them on the battlefield.

The U.S. official did not confirm that drones had arrived in Russia, but added: “During the last several weeks, Russian officials conducted training in Iran as part of the agreement for UAV transfers from Iran to Russia.”

According to an analysis by Dutch aviation tracker Gerjon, three cargo planes have plied the Tehran-Moscow route in recent months – two 747 jumbo jets belonging to airlines Qeshm Fars Air and Iran Air Cargo, plus a Pouya Air Ilyushin-76.

At Least 40 Iranian cargo flights to Moscow

Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 Feb 2022, Gerjon found a total of 40 Iranian cargo flights into Russia, all of which went to Moscow. The following flights to Moscow were identified, listed in chronological order:

This list was generated by combining Flightradar24 and ADSBexchange data, the latter accessed through the Icarus Flights platform. For each flight I have added added a link to the specific flight on ADSBexchange. This list was originally made on 24 May 2022 and later updated on 13 Jul 2022.

All flights by “Pouya Air” EP-PUS went to Moscow Vnukovo Airport (VKO/UUWW), located west of Moscow. “Qeshm Fars Air” EP-FAA generally visits Moscow Sheremetyevo Airport (SVO/UUEE), located north of the city. However, at least one flight by “Qeshm Fars Air” EP-FAA (15 May 2022) seems to have gone to Vnukovo Airport instead. On 02 Jul 2022, “Qeshm Fars Air” EP-FAA visited Moscow Zhukovsky Airport (ZIA/UUBW). Like EP-FAA, also “Iran Air Cargo” EP-ICD flights visits Moscow Sheremetyevo Airport.

Because of MLAT tracking, it is not always clear which where these flights to Moscow come from or head to. One “Iran Air Cargo” flight (08 May 2022) clearly visited Yerevan in Armenia before continuing to Russia. Two “Qeshm Fars Air” flights (22 Apr 2022 and 20 May 2022, both using full ADS-B) came from Imam Khomeini Airport (IKA/OIIE) near Tehran. For the other flights, flight origin remains uncertain.

Given that Tehran is the home base of the aircraft, looking at available MLAT positions and knowing that Iranian cargo flights to Moscow tend to fly north out of Iran, across the Caspian Sea and Kazakhstan, turning west to Moscow when reaching the Russian border, it becomes clear that the flights most likely came from Iran. Tehran seems the most logical candidate.

One may wonder whether these flights are anything out of the ordinary. This raises the question: how often did these Iranian cargo aircraft visit Moscow in previous years? To get a quick overview of an aircraft’s whereabouts, I used Icarus Flights, a platform developed by the Center for Advanced Defense Studies (C4ADS) that uses ADSBexchange aircraft tracking data. “Qeshm Fars Air” aircraft (EP-FAA and EP-FAB) were tracked visiting Moscow twice in 2021. Over the same period, “Pouya Air” aircraft visited Moscow once. “Iran Air Cargo” was not tracked visiting Moscow in 2021. This confirms that the 40 flights following the invasion are a clear increase compared to normal.

Beyond cargo aircraft, also Iranian passenger aircraft have been visiting Moscow. For example, a “Mahan Air” Boeing 747-400 passenger aircraft (EP-MEE) visited Moscow Vnukovo Airport on 17 May 2022. According to the description, this was an uncommon visit. Because some other flights may be regular flights that also took place before the war, I have chosen not to include further Iranian passenger flights in this post.

The latter is under American sanctions for flying fighters and arms to Syria on behalf of the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force during Syria’s civil war. Qeshm Fars Air is also under U.S. sanctions over its ties to Quds Force and for transporting fighters, arms and other cargo to Syria. The particular plane now flying to Moscow had previously plied the route between Tehran and Damascus for years. The three planes have made at least 42 trips from Tehran to Moscow since the war in Ukraine began, compared to three in 2021.

The surge in flights attests to the strengthening of ties between the two countries, especially under Russia’s growing isolation following its invasion into Ukraine. Iran announced last month that it had signed a deal with Russia to expand cooperation in the aviation sector and provide spare parts for planes, after Western sanctions on Moscow caused a severe shortage and serious problems with airplane maintenance. Some of the Iranian cargo planes may have been carrying these spare parts.

The Russian arsenal contained only one drone in significant numbers – the Orlan-10, a surveillance drone used mainly to identify Ukrainian targets for Russian artillery and rocket batteries.

Another surveillance drone, the Forpost-R, is based on the Israel Aerospace Industries Searcher and manufactured in Russia under license. It has been modified to carry a limited payload of guided missiles.

“Of course the Russians saw what was happening around the world in the drone field and took notes. But they came late to the field,” said Samuel Bendett, who researches Russia’s unmanned capabilities for the Center for Naval Analyses in Arlington, Virginia. “Consequently, when the war in Ukraine began, they had very few armed drones and loitering munitions”

The Russians are now trying to fill the gap with drones from Iran. If the deal goes through, it will presumably include attack drones such as the Shahed 129 and Mohajer-6, as well as the Shahed 136, which is a type of loitering munition that Iran manufactures in large quantities.

Sources: Gerjon; Haaretz

At Least 40 Iranian cargo flights to Moscow

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